Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
