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Mounting apprehensions have emerged regarding the possibility of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. Following a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and suggested the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been confined to brief comments on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that moves to validate "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Region

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of personnel division of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Origins of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A extended armed struggle followed, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries remained at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the hostilities was concluded – a decision that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

However relations have subsequently deteriorated again.