Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
